基于不同机器学习模型预测天然橡胶疲劳寿命

肖玲; 伍又云

doi:10.14028/j.cnki.1003-3726.2025.25.279

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基于不同机器学习模型预测天然橡胶疲劳寿命

研究论文 | 更新时间：2026-03-02

- 基于不同机器学习模型预测天然橡胶疲劳寿命
- Prediction of Fatigue Life of Natural Rubber by Different Machine Learning Models
- 高分子通报 2026年39卷第3期页码：447-456
- 作者机构：
  
  濮阳职业技术学院　濮阳　 457001
  河南大学濮阳工学院　濮阳　 457001
- 作者简介：
  
  uxsp71092@126.com
- 基金信息：
  
  河南省科学技术成果项目(项目号 9412013R2158)
- DOI：10.14028/j.cnki.1003-3726.2025.25.279
  中图分类号：
- 收稿：2025-10-24，
  
  录用：2025-11-25，
  
  网络首发：2026-01-12，
  
  纸质出版：2026-03-20
- 稿件说明：
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肖玲, 伍又云. 基于不同机器学习模型预测天然橡胶疲劳寿命. 高分子通报, 2026, 39(3), 447-456.

Xiao, L.; Wu, Y. Y. Prediction of fatigue life of natural rubber by different machine learning models. Polym. Bull. (in Chinese), 2026, 39(3), 447-456.
肖玲, 伍又云. 基于不同机器学习模型预测天然橡胶疲劳寿命. 高分子通报, 2026, 39(3), 447-456. DOI： 10.14028/j.cnki.1003-3726.2025.25.279.

Xiao, L.; Wu, Y. Y. Prediction of fatigue life of natural rubber by different machine learning models. Polym. Bull. (in Chinese), 2026, 39(3), 447-456. DOI： 10.14028/j.cnki.1003-3726.2025.25.279.

摘要

用人工神经元网络(ANN)和径向基网络(RBF)对天然橡胶试样的疲劳寿命进行了建模和预测，利用敏感性分析定量研究了环境温度、橡胶硬度、峰值应变对橡胶疲劳寿命的影响程度。当环境温度为25、50和70 ℃，橡胶硬度为N40和N50，峰值应变在0.4~1.3之间时，试样疲劳寿命在9984~604247次之间。通过优化隐含层神经元数量，发现3-25-10-1结构的ANN网络和3-47-1结构的RBF网络预测疲劳寿命与试验结果均方误差(MSE)最低，分别为0.0383和0.0045，RBF网络预测准确性更高，性能曲线相关系数

均在0.9700以上，最高达到了0.9847，高于ANN的0.9511。峰值应变对疲劳寿命的影响最显著，达到了62.14%，高于环境温度的31.57%，橡胶硬度的影响最小，为6.29%。

Abstract

Artificial neural networks (ANN) and radial basis function networks (RBF) were employed to model and predict the fatigue life of natural rubber samples. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to quantitatively evaluate the influence of environmental temperature

rubber hardness

and peak strain on fatigue life. Under the experimental conditions (environmental temperature: 25

70 ℃; rubber hardness: N40

N50; peak strain: 0.4−1.3)

the fatigue life of the samples varied from 9984 to 604247 cycles. By optimizing the number of neurons in t

he hidden layers

we found that the ANN model with a 3-25-10-1 structure and the RBF model with a 3-47-1 structure yielded the lowest mean squared error (MSE) in fatigue life prediction

with values of 0.0383 and 0.0045

respectively. The RBF model exhibited higher prediction accuracy

with the correlation coefficient (

) between predicted and measured fatigue life exceeding 0.9700 and reaching a maximum of 0.9847—superior to the ANN model (

=0.9511). Among the three factors

peak strain exerted the most significant influence on fatigue life (contribution: 62.14%)

followed by environmental temperature (31.57%)

whereas rubber hardness had the least impact (6.29%).

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